According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2024 report, at least 70 people died in Kenya in 2023 due to terrorist attacks orchestrated by the Somalia-based Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant outfit Al-Shabaab.
The report indicates that the figure marks the highest death toll since 2019.
Further, it revealed that the majority of Al-Shabaab incidents in Kenya in 2023 were concentrated in Lamu County, adjacent to the Somali border, where 26 casualties were recorded—a surge of 10 deaths compared to the previous year.
Following Lamu, Garissa, and Mandera counties collectively registered 37 fatalities.
Additionally, the report highlights that the two deadliest assaults by Al-Shabaab in Kenya last year involved roadside bombings.
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“Both of the deadliest Al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya in 2023 involved roadside bombings, one targeting soldiers in Lamu and the other targeting police in Garissa. Ten people were killed in each attack,” the report says.
In 2023, military personnel were the target of 41% of Al-Shabaab assaults, with civilians coming in second at 22%.
Nonetheless, the analysis highlights a drop in Al-Shabaab-attributed terrorism-related fatalities, which fell from 800 in 2022 to 499 in 2023—a loss of over 38 percent.
Remarkably, eighty-six percent of these deaths took place in Somalia, a neighboring country; the remaining fourteen percent happened in Kenya.
According to the research, increased Al-Shabaab militant crossings into Kenya are a result of government-led counterterrorism operations in Somalia, which are made worse by insufficient law enforcement along the border.
The report argues that changes to Kenya’s security leadership have exacerbated the situation, “leading to a security gap that militants are exploiting to conduct attacks.”
The GTI report indicates that intensified counterterrorism efforts by the Somali government and allied forces contributed to a significant reduction in deaths within Somalia.
“This was especially evident in regions such as Banaadir and Shabeellaha Dhexe, with deaths from Al-Shabaab attacks falling by 76 and 89 per cent respectively between 2022 and 2023.”
Shabeellaha Hoose and Hiiraan in Somalia overtook Banaadir as the regions with the most Al-Shabaab deaths, recording 133 and 117 deaths, respectively in 2023.
Al-Shabaab has consistently employed bombings and armed assaults as its primary tactics, with nearly 69 percent of terrorism-related deaths attributed to bombings in 2023, while armed assaults accounted for an additional 25 percent of fatalities.
